IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA, 1987- 2014

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA, 1987- 2014

ABSTRACT

The degree of volatility of exchange rate movements has led policy makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on growth. This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the economic growth in Nigeria. The thesis offers empirical evidence on the impact of exchange rate volatility on Nigeria’s economic growth. A review of literature shows that exchange rate volatility can have either positive or negative effects on economic growth depending on the parameter used. The study used annualized time series data for the period 1987-2014 to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria using real gross domestic product growth rate as proxy for economic growth. The data sources were mainly from Central Bank Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (various years).The study builds on absolute percentage change measure for exchange rate volatility measurement. The unit root tests employed are based on the work of Dickey-Fuller. Application of Johansen multivariate procedure was to obtain the trace and maximum eigenvalue likelihood ratio test statistics. The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports were also examined so as to determine the extent to which this volatility can influence these variables via growth. For a more robust model, inflation, a determinant of economic growth was also included to examine its effect. The empirical analyses began with the testing of the four formulated hypotheses for the thesis. From the findings, exchange rate volatility had a negative and significant impact on the economic growth in Nigeria within the period studied. The study also found a negative and significant casual relationship between inflation and economic growth.Exchange rate volatility exerted positive and significant impact on exports, and negative and significant impact on imports. This indicates that higher exchange rat risk encourages exports and discourages imports, and also discourages economic growth. Although economic theories suggest that export oriented economies tend to grow faster than import dependent ones, yet the Nigeria case was different during the period studied. Thus, the study recommends that Nigeria should increase her economy diversification by encouraging production and exportation of primary commodities and discouraging importation of goods that can be locally produced.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0       INTRODUCTION

1:1       BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

Exchange rate lies at the heart of the global financial system and set the terms on which countries trade each other’s goods and services. Exchange rate is a key macroeconomic variable in the context of general economic policy making and of economic reform programmes. Its management determines the pace at which a country’s economic activities will grow. Thus the analysis of exchange rate management and the variability associated with exchange rate has been a recurring topic in international monetary economics. According to Chou (2000), the debate on exchange rate management transcended the collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s to the emergence of Bretton Wood System of adjustable peg from the 1940s through other various exchange rates.

This debate on exchange rate volatility and uncertainty has long divided economists. At one end, the argument supports the fixed exchange rate while the other, the floating system. The Nigerian economy has been visibly distressed in the different phases of exchange rate management (ERM); each coming with its own, possible problem.

According to Idika (1998) frequent changes in foreign exchange policies caused by unstable political environment have prevented these policies from coming full circle. Exchange rate stability, which is essential for growth is influenced greatly by the appropriate policy mix by governments in their quest to attain macroeconomic targets.

The term stability does not connote static condition but a situation that permits variability in response to changes in the market fundamentals. Examples are changes in relative prices, international terms of trade and other factors that impinge on the price competitiveness of the domestic market agents’ products. In fact, the exchange rate arrangement that emerged after the collapse of Bretton-Wood has always been criticized on the grounds that it does not have a mechanism to reduce or regulate excessive rate volatility among the major currencies(dollar, yen and deutsche mark), which is the G-3 currency ( Gerardo and Felipe, 2001)

With the move from fixed to flexible exchange rates in Europe in 1973, there was increasing concern about effects of exchange rate variability on trade. Flexible exchange rate that followed the collapse of the Bretton Wood System is of concern to economists and policy makers about the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth (see Williamson 2001). In a flexible exchange regime, the exchange rate is determined directly by market forces, and is liable to fluctuate as dictated by changing market condition (Isard, 1998). For instance, Oyovwi (2012) evaluated in his studies that the flexible exchange rate produced a significant volatility and uncertainty effect in the exchange rate of Naira.

Exchange rate instability, the volatility of international capital movements and bubbles in asset prices are all closely interlinked. Wilson and Ren (2007) argued that in 1997 Asia crisis, for example, the rush to invest in “Asian miracle” led to the influx of capital which led to a boom in share and property prices, and also upward movement on exchange rates. A change in sentiment led to reduction of capital movements, a collapse in asset prices and a sharp fall in exchange rates. According to Wilson et .al (2007), following the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the issue of the choice of exchange rate regime for the East Asian Countries re-emerged.

Aside economic crisis, exchange rate fluctuations as put by Smith (2002) can have a positive effect on industrial output which also promotes employment from industry’s point of view: the two objectives are that rates should be competitive and stable. The most striking issue to the economists is the fluctuation of rates at the times of financial crisis, but equally serious are the effects of continuing fluctuations and misalignments of rates on industry and employment and in the longer run on both developed and underdeveloped economies.

Moreover, changes in exchange rates also have powerful-effects on imports and exports of the countries in question through effects on relative prices of goods. Mordi (2006) posits that the Nigerian economy is highly dependent on import for both consumption and production. Usually all the major industrial raw materials are sourced from abroad while the country depends on foreign supply for intermediate and capital goods. The major non-oil exports products are basically primary produce whose prices have been on the downward trend and are exogenously determined making exports to be highly inelastic. These exports are slow in responding to exchange rate adjustments.

According to World Bank (2003), research has shown that many oil producing nations are exposed to variations in exchange rate due their large oil wealth. This variation will then act as tax on investment in traded goods production notably agriculture and manufacturing which have an adverse impact on growth. For instance, since the oil discoveries in the early 1970s made Nigeria one of the world’s top ten exporters, the country’s over-dependency on oil as the chief source of revenue resulted in negligence of non-oil exports for foreign exchange earnings. Oil accounts for about 90 per cent of total exports and about four-fifths of total government revenue while non-oil per capita GDP has been falling dramatically since the early 1970. The displacement of agricultural exports by crude oil exports in the early 1970s as the major foreign exchange earner owing to the sharp rise in petroleum prices; enhanced official foreign exchange receipts. Jin (2008) showed that the implications of over-dependence on export of oil is that economy is highly prone to external shocks in that any crash in oil price will lead to decline in foreign exchange earnings and destabilizing effects on exchange rate. This shift in relative prices would lead to a corresponding shift in the allocation of domestic resources and move economic structure away from the production of export goods (agriculture), and into services sectors.

To explain high exchange rate volatility in oil rich countries (ORCS), it has been argued that countries with many interest groups competing for the resources’ rents are likely to overspend in good years, and under-adjust in bad years. Each interest group tries to over exploit windfall gains in an attempt to at least partially offload efforts (see the “voracity effect”, Lane and Tornell 1995). Federal states like Nigeria are thought to be especially vulnerable to what amounts to an equivalent of overgrazing the commons.

An expenditure behaviour that leads to overspending in good days and under adjustment in bad days may end up with an economy with even higher volatility than is to be expected on the basis of the volatility in its revenue streams alone as suggested by Hamilton (1983). There is possibly high exchange rate volatility in oil rich countries (ORCs): an explanation that starts from the surprising fact that many oil rich countries (ORCs) have indeed landed themselves in debt problems, their oil wealth notwithstanding.

Thus volatility in exchange rate is harmful to economic growth, a problem that is common in less developed countries (LDCs) because of the extreme volatility of their income streams. Nigeria’s experience so far indicates that managing exchange rate volatility in a poor institutional environment is difficult. The poor macroeconomic environment of the past largely contributed to the problem in the external sector of the economy. For example, Nigeria was ranked as the third most volatile economy in terms of trade volatility out of 90 countries in a World Bank (2003) study covering the period 1961-2000. This shows that the impact of high volatility on output and growth was further worsened by an inflexible real exchange rate policy in Nigeria. This is to say that if expenditure is highly volatile, a flexible real exchange can at least prevent or reduce impact on output volatility and growth. This is because high expenditure volatility requires exchange rate flexibility to accommodate downturn effects on growth.

Obadan (1998) further opines that failure by the Federal Government of Nigeria to adjust the exchange rate to the decline in expenditure necessitated by declining oil prices and more difficult access to external finance, resulted in unemployment rising instead. In the end, the oil price collapse, high interest rates and public debt problems as of early 1980s, made high nominal exchange rate unsustainable and massive nominal and real exchange rate depreciation followed. Thus exporters following official exchange rates effectively would be faced with a high tax further discouraging non-oil exports. For instance, in the early 1970s, most economic agents had to patronize the Central Bank of Nigeria for foreign exchange allocation due to instability in the rates.

In an effort to highly manage the exchange rate, the Federal government of Nigeria rationed foreign exchange and created multiple windows for foreign exchange transaction, which created a parallel market for foreign exchange. Also as stated by Central Bank of Nigeria (2006), the existence of the parallel market has continued to foster speculative activities in the foreign exchange market. Throughout the 1990s, annual investigation by the regulatory authorities has revealed significant exchange rate premium between the official rate and the parallel market rate for arbitrage gains. For example, the parallel market premium was as high as 79.2 percent in February 1992, compared with 35.5 percent in 1991 and the internationally acceptable standard of 5.0 percent. Exporters that had to surrender foreign exchange at official rates effectively faced a high tax further discouraging non-oil exports. This was not enough to resolve the imbalance: an inflationary process further fuelled by substantial deficit financing through money issue by the public sector brought about further real exchange rate appreciation. As a result while the nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable, the black market premium reached 330 percent when oil prices collapsed.

Aghion (2006) has shown empirically that high exchange rate volatility slows down productivity and growth by substantial margin in countries with a relatively underdeveloped financial sector, like Nigeria. In their sample study, Hausman and Rigobon (2002) showed that a 50% increase in volatility slows down productivity growth by 33% on average. And there is substantial evidence that oil rich countries have more volatile economics than non-oil rich countries. Thus, there is logic to focus on exchange rate volatility as an explanatory factor for Nigeria’s poor growth record. It is also evident that Nigeria’s economy is struggling to leverage the country’s vast wealth in fossil fuels in order to displace the crushing poverty that affects about 57 percent of its population. Economists refer to the co-existence of vast wealth in natural resources and extreme personal poverty in developing countries like Nigeria as the “resource curse” as shown in appendix A (see Manzano and Rigobon, 2001, Budina and Wijnbergen 2006).

Thus, prior to the adoption of the structural Adjustment Programme in September 1986, Nigeria’s exchange rate system was administratively managed (adjustable peg). The country’s currency experienced a continuous appreciation (except for few years), amidst a noticeable macroeconomic disequilibrium reflected in the bourgeoning non-oil trade deficit, balance of payments crisis, and fiscal deficits. Even when a free-floating exchange rate system was adopted, the monetary authorities were criticized for not allowing the market fundamentals to determine the operations of the market. The genuineness of these allegations is reflected in the ever widening premium between the official and parallel exchange rates. This measure and other subsequent measures did little or nothing to bring stability in exchange rate.

Thus, following the quest for corrective measures of the exchange management strategies in Nigeria and the need to ward off distortions in the foreign exchange market various modifications have been made to the institutional framework with a view to achieving a realistic exchange rate objective. That is from Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market (FEM), Dutch Action System (DAS), and currently the Wholesale Dutch Action System (WDAS). All the aforementioned regimes will be discussed in detail in the next chapter.

1.2       STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM`

A lot has been said about the management of exchange rate in Nigeria following the various regimes of exchange rate policy, accomplishments have been less than satisfactory. Since the generalized fixed exchange rate regime and adoption of a generalized floating system by the industrialized countries in 1973, most countries including Nigeria, have experimented with various types of exchange rate arrangement ranging from the peg system to weighted currency basket to managed floating and more recently to the monetary zone arrangement (see Mordi 2006). Inconsistent management of the various exchange rate policy/regimes adopted so far by the country to help check volatility in exchange rates has jeopardized the overall macroeconomic policy objectives.

According to Mordi (2006), once an exchange rate is not fixed, it is subject to variations, thus floating exchange rates tend to be more volatile. The degree of volatility and the extent of stability maintained are affected by economic fundamentals.

Thus strong economic fundamentals are meant to produce favourable economic environment. Friedman (1953) supported this argument in his thesis noted that “…instability of exchange rate is a symptom of instability in the underlying economic structure …”

The naira exchange rate has been fluctuating since the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. The Nigerian situation since SAP has mostly been characterized by increasing demand which outstripped supply, contributing generally to the continuous depreciation of the naira. The SAP was designed to deal with the underlying imbalances in the Nigerian economy following the collapse of international oil market. This phenomenon of excess demand for foreign exchange in relation to supply has contributed to the dwindling fortunes of the naira in all the foreign exchange markets. Also weak production base and undiversified nature of the economy are the factors that led to the depreciation of Naira.

The country’s over dependency on oil as the main source of revenue resulted in negligence of non oil exports for foreign exchange earnings in the early1970’s. The enormous foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports encouraged the massive importation of finished goods and services. The implication of this over dependency on export of oil is that the Nigeria economy is highly prone to external shocks in that any crash in the oil price will lead to decline in foreign exchange earnings, and destabilizing effects on macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, gross domestic product, interest rate, and inflation rate. According to Obadan (1998), adverse foreign exchange rate regimes adopted so far have affected the Nigerian economy over the years. The combined effects of dwindling in price of oil and the volatility in exchange rate due to inconsistent exchange rate regimes has led to constant depreciation of naira.

Again, most import dependent economies like Nigeria face the problem of exchange rate volatility because the economy’s technological base is weak, industrial activities tended to be organized to depend largely on imported inputs. Nigeria relies so much on revenue from oil exports, but massively imports refined petroleum and other related products. The prevailing import-dependent industrial structure became unsustainable as the mounting import bills could not be matched by current export earnings (Ojo 1998).

The various monetary policy reforms and exchange rate adjustments failed to restore stability in exchange rate and maintain a low and stable inflation rate.

Despite the various measures adopted and strategies for implementation, instability in exchange rate has persisted. Gerardo and Felipe (2001) have argued that G-3 currency instability have been at root of some of the currency and financial crisis that have affected several developing countries. Caballero and Corbo (1989), for example, show that higher volatility of the real exchange rate hurt exports in a large group of developing countries, thus affecting economic growth. Economic theory is ambiguous on the impacts of increased exchange rate variations, some models predict negative or positive impacts depending on the key parameters used. Many other authors have also attempted to investigate whether exchange volatility depresses trade flows in different periods and for different countries. This literature has been surveyed by Mckenzie (1999), who concludes that empirical results on this matter have so far been inconclusive. In other words, theoretical and empirical work on the subject has produced mixed results. This study attempts to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the economic growth of this country Nigeria.

 1.3       OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. To achieve this, the study strives to fulfil the following objectives:

1. To ascertain the magnitude of the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria.
2. To assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation rate in Nigeria.
3. To establish whether there is a significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports in Nigeria.
4. To determine what the effect of exchange rate volatility on imports in Nigeria.

1.4       RESEARCH QUESTIONS

To achieve the objectives of the study, these are used to provide answers to following questions:

1. To what extent does exchange rate volatility impact on economic growth in
2. Nigeria?
3. To what extent does exchange rate volatility affect inflation in Nigeria?
4. How far has exchange rate volatility had a significant relationship on exports in Nigeria?
5. How far does exchange rate volatility have a positive and significant effect on imports in Nigeria?

1.5       RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

In line with objectives, the following a-priori assumptions were made:

H01: Exchange rates volatility does not have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.

H02: Exchange rate volatility does not have a positive and significant impact on inflation in Nigeria.

H03: Exchange rate volatility does not have a positive and significant relationship on exports in Nigeria.

H04: Exchange rate volatility does not have a positive and significant impact on imports in Nigeria.

 1.6       SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of this research work was limited the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria only and it covers the period of 1987 to 2014.

1.7       SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

An analytical investigation of the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic in Nigeria is of great significance to the Nigerian Government, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the market dealers in Nigeria. This study will also be of benefit to the following other groups. These groups include:

1. Policymakers and Monetary Authorities.

First, this study will be of use to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and policy makers in order to maintain relative stability in the foreign exchange market. For example, to understand the impact of monetary policies on the major macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate and inflation, it is necessary to analyze variation in exchange rate movements within a time frame. An appropriate policy mix is important to attain some given macroeconomic policy objectives of exchange rate stability, economic growth, employment and external variability. It is evident that the management of the exchange rate is vested in the Central Bank of Nigeria, and thus Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to help policy makers realize that exchange rate management without the necessary co-ordination of macroeconomic policies is not enough to solve the problems of macroeconomic imbalances in Nigeria.

2. Private and Public Sector Operators.

Secondly, exchange rate volatility is important not only from the perceptive of the CBN but also from the view point of private sector operators. These private sector operators are also concerned about exchange rate fluctuations because of its impact on their portfolios, which may result in capital gains or losses. This study will be of help to them because the importance of maintaining a stable real exchange rate at a realistic level is that it gives investor confidence to plan on creating wealth by exporting or by producing import-substitutes that can really compete with imports. Exchange rate is intricately related to economic growth, exchange rate is the price of money and influences export and import in various ways. Higher exchange rate means lower imports and higher exports. Lower imports imply conservation of the foreign reserve, while more exports imply increase in foreign exchange earnings and thus, more fund for investment. Exchange rate stability is therefore imperative for driving growth since it enable investors make reliable future investment plans. Instability can lead to unnecessary fluctuations in imports, exports, and cost of production, and makes it difficult to attract foreign investors. Beside factors such as market opportunity, political risks and the legal environment, business entities take exchange rate into consideration in making investment decisions. The focus has always been on the volatility of exchange rates in the foreign exchange market and its impact on their business outcomes.

3. Academia

Thirdly, those in the field of academics will find this work to be of great importance for further researches and references. The different empirical results of the previous works on exchange rate volatility from different countries were mainly concerned with exports. It then becomes important for a detailed study of exchange rate volatility on economic growth. The empirical findings of this study will guide researchers working on the area that this study did not cover to draw their conclusions. The findings will also be added to already existing literature on volatility of exchange rates

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